We welcome the new financial year with another likely dry day and wet track at HQ.
It will be interesting to see how Randwick plays, particularly over the 1000-1200 metre races, we’ve seen recently horses who have bolted from the get-go (hello Witherspoon) have been particularly hard to catch.
What happened last week? It seemed that an upload error at my end meant nothing came through, obviously I won over the day (nothing ridiculous, just Steel Diamond in the first), but we’ll just pretend it never happened and get back to the standard ten unit Saturdays.
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 223
Units won: 210.10
Based on one unit being equal to $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends (see comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition).
No selections this week in Races 1 and 2.
Race 3 – 7 Tickler (one unit)
Starting with the undefeated (1 from 1) Tickler, didn’t seem to beat anything special but the horse he nosed out then went to Kembla against the older horses and gave them an absolute bath.
Ticks the heavy track box, draws well and should be up near the speed. Tailleur is the obvious threat and a solid favourite, she smashed her opposition on debut but is short enough and did it on a dry track.
Race 4 – 8 Dylan’s Romance (one unit)
It’s Hail Mary time tipping Dylan’s Romance at 100/1 in this one, a longshot for a reason (a combined 35 lengths from winning in his last three starts), but sometimes longshots pay off big. Going all the way back to February to line him up here, he should surely be fitter three runs into his prep and gets in here with 53 kilos (he lugged 59.5 for his midweek win).
Of the horses not at triple-figure odds, High Opinion rates well, Articus gets in well with Louise Day’s claim and Mr Dependable is overdue for a win.
Race 5 – Spaceboy (two units)
Going with Spaceboy to keep working through the grades, he’s been a short-priced bridesmaid for most of his career but has perhaps taken the next step, his win at Wyong was good and he maps to Witherspoon-them (be well clear at the turn). It’s a competitive field, a couple down the bottom have taken three-kilo apprentice claims and could step up, although both Worldly Pleasure and Twirling Moss would surely prefer it dry.
Race 6 – 3 Elaborate (one unit)
Elaborate was very impressive behind Mount Popa last start, noting that he also meets Terwilliker a kilo better from their clash at the start of June. True Marvel is a threat stepping up from Thursday racing, while Sarge’s horse She’s So Savvy is one to watch – she holds the track record for 1900 metres at Newcastle.
Race 7 – 12 Vitesse (two units)
I’m quite keen on Vitesse, she gets in at the limit and meets Threeood two kilos better than when they went for an easy kill in the midweeks earlier this prep. I’m trusting that Avdulla can do something from the wide gate and we get the job done. Threeood’s last start was well-documented, an interesting move to go back to the 1400 trip. She can make amends here and I can retain my place in the foetal position.
Riva Capri and Outback Diva rate well.
Race 8 – 11 Reiby’s Regent (one unit)
Reiby’s Regent gets a nice weight drop into this and is the right price to throw a few coins at, as well as pop in any Quaddie and Super Yankee. If they walk up front he could keep going. Cristal Breeze rated the next best on the back of his solid midweek win on his Oz debut, while Handspun has the Saturday form and should be peaking third-up from a spell.
Race 9 – 11 Convinced (two units)
Could an 11/11/11/11 Quadrella finally happen? It’s the fourth of the seventh as well (add them, whoa boy!). I’m finishing with Convinced, he’s been spared from my no-bet list – last chance – his first-up run was good and I’m sure Team Snowden has sorted the issues that showed-up after his failure last time.
Agassi is in the mix again, while there’s a sniff around for All But Gone (my speculator last start at 50/1), cue foetal position referenced in Race 7.
Good luck and good punting, may your quaddies be large and your reliance on Pikey minimal. Please feel free to send through your best bets and speculators.